User:Zai Lynch/CG Metrics

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Revision as of 12:22, 7 October 2008 by Zai Lynch (talk | contribs) (paragraph reflecting the actual situation)
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What is this about?

The theorie on this page is supposed to provide a rough estimation on how many users register a new account via de.secondlife.com, based on the weekly released Community Gateway New User Metrics.

Assumptions

  1. All users (no matter where they are from) are accepting the CG program equally.
  2. All countries are offering CGs in their language.
  3. A user always chooses to register either at secondlife.com or at a CG of their native language.


Abbrevation Meaning
Total All new users
TotalGer All new German speaking users
CG New users who chose to start at a Community Gateway
CGGer New German speaking users who chose to start at a Community Gateway
GWA Users who register via de.secondlife.com and therefor would start at the German Welcome Area

Theorie

Assuming the circumstances listet above, we can say that the percentage of users who chooses to start at a Community Gateway based on the total new user count equals the percentage of German users who choose to start a Community Gateway based on the total new German usercount.

CG Mertics1.png

The users expected for the German Welcome Area are all users who are German speaking minus the ones who choose to start at a Community Gateway.

GWA = TotalGer − CGGer

Merging these two equations results in

CG Metrics2.png

With the further assumption that the CGs Frankfurt, New Berlin and Vienna Freebies are the only German speaking CGs[1] and that furhtermore these are only German speaking[2], we're able to calculate the users expected for the German Welcome Area with the data we got from the Community Gateway New User Metrics.

Actual Situation

In case the given theorie is reflecting the actual situation, we'll have about 220 Residents at the GWA per day according to the CG metrics of the last few weeks.

There is also a statement from Danica Linden, saying we'd have up to calculate with between 4k and 5k new registered German users with 10-30% from other German speaking locations: Austria, Switzerland, etc.
She said that up to 50% would choose CGs. Compared with the actual metrics, I got doubts about these numbers. They might also reflect the registrations rather than the actual log ins. But nevertheless, the values might give an impression of how many new Residents to expact at the GWA. Since my theorie is prognosing way less Residents than Danicas metrics, we might interpret it as some kind of lower bound.

Please keep in mind that these new Residents are all within the same timezone and therefor the log ins might be more often at afternoon and evening hours.

Footnoes

  1. ^ Anshe's Dreamland might attract German users too, as well as CSI, L Word, ...
  2. ^ Vienna Freebies is english speaking too


Would be nice to have TeX enabled... (^_^) 

<math>\frac{CG}{Total}=\frac{CG_{Ger}}{Total_{Ger}}</math>

<math>GWA=Total_{Ger}-CG_{Ger}</math>

<math>GWA=CG_{Ger}(\frac{Total}{CG}-1)</math>
Zai landing.png
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